2020年世界船舶市场评述与2021年展望

回顾了2020年世界经济、航运、造船市场,并对2021年船舶市场进行展望。2020年新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球,全球经济整体呈现负增长,导致航运各细分市场情况迥异,除集运市场年底火热外,其他市场均处于低迷状态。新船交付量整体大幅回落,与去年同比减少约31%,市场出现大面积撤单现象,仅海工市场基本面向好。新船建造市场受疫情影响,与2019年同期相比下跌约11%,散货船是今年交付量中唯一呈现增长的船型。2021年预计世界经济同比大幅反弹,航运市场需求将强于供给,市场形势总体将优于2020年;同时,考虑到疫情对市场的影响效应短期持续,预计世界船舶市场将逐步趋于理性,主要船型的新船订单量将朝着长期均衡方向逐步恢复增长,并且绿色和智能依旧是未来的大方向。

Review of World Shipping Market in 2020 and Prospect in 2021

This article reviews the world economy,shipping and shipbuilding markets in 2020,and prospects the markets in 2021.The novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)epidemic swept the world in 2020,and the global economy showed negative growth as a whole,resulting in the widely different shipping market segments.Except for the hot container transportation market at the end of the year,other markets were all downward.The overall delivery of the new ships has fallen sharply with approximately 31%decrease year-on-year.There was a large-scale cancellation of orders in the market,and only the offshore engineering market was basically good.Affected by the COVID-19,the new shipbuilding market declined about 11%year-on-year.And the bulk carrier was the only ship type with increased delivery in 2020.In 2021,the world economy is expected to rebound sharply year-on-year,the demand of the shipping market will be stronger than its supply,and the overall market situation will be better than that in 2020.Considering the short-term impact of the COVID-19,it is expected that the world shipping market will gradually become rational.The new ship orders of main ship types are steadily recovering in the long-term equilibrium direction,while green and intelligence are still the general direction in future.