基于可拓方法的泥石流危险性评价

运用可拓学的物元理论、可拓集合论和关联函数,构建泥石流危险性评价的经典物元和节域物元,建立泥石流危险性评价的物元模型。应用建立的物元模型,选取泥石流规模、泥石流发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、流域最大相对高差、流域切割密度、主沟床弯曲系数、泥砂补给段长度比、24 h最大降雨量、人口密度等10个因子作为泥石流危险性评价因子,对8条典型泥石流沟的危险性进行评价,获得客观合理的评价结果。与其它评价方法的对比结果表明:该方法能较真实地反映实际泥石流沟的危险性等级,证明可拓学理论应用于泥石流危险性评价的有效性和可行性。

Debris Flow Hazard Assessment Based on Extension Method

By applying matter-element theory,extension set theory and dependent function calculation of extension method,the classical and limited matter-elements of debris flow hazard assessment were set up,and an extension model of the multifactor synthetic assessment on the debris flow hazard was established as well in this paper.Ten factors,such as selected debris flow scale,occurrence frequency of debris flow,drainage area,length of main ditches,maximum relative altitude in drainage area,incising density,bending coefficient of major ditch bed,length proportion of debris supplement section,maximum rainfall in 24 hours and population density,etc,were used to evaluate debris flow hazard based on extension model.Hazard assessment was conducted on eight typical debris ditches,and objective and reasonable assessment results were obtained.Compared with other assessment methods,this method can reflect more objectively and truly the hazard degree of actual debris ditch.Therefore,the extension theory is more effective and practical in assessing debris hazard.