适应多元交通政策分析的定制四阶段模型研究

作为最常用的交通政策分析工具，城市交通模型在交通政策制定的过程中扮演重要角色。四阶段模型尽管建模相对简单，但其基于小区、基于出行的建模思路在交通政策分析中存在先天不足。活动模型使用基于家庭或个人、基于活动的建模思路，尽管能很好地满足交通政策分析的要求，但由于建模难度较高在中国鲜有应用。对此，基于结构体系与功能模块分离的模型设计理念，采用四阶段模型的结构体系，借鉴活动模型的建模方法提出人口合成、可达性变量、出行时间选择、出行链4个功能模块用以改进四阶段模型。城市可在传统四阶段模型结构体系的基础上灵活选用4个功能模块来定制城市交通模型，在不显著增加建模难度的基础上满足交通政策分析的诉求。

Four-Stage Modeling for Various Transportation Policy Analysis

As a most commonly used tool for transportation policy analysis, urban transportation model plays a key role in the policy-making process. Although four-stage model is easy to develop, it is insuffi-cient in transportation policy analysis because of its TAZ-based and trip-based model platform. Activity-based model can fulfill the needs of transportation policy analysis since it is person- or household-based and activity-based. However, the activity-based model is rarely used in China because of the difficulties in model development. Based on the model design theory that separates general model system and specific functional modules, this paper proposes a four functional module system with synthesized population, vari-able accessibility, travel time choice, and trip chain to improve the conventional four-stage model. Urban transportation planning can flexibly choose one or more modules to replace the counterparts of four-stage model to obtain customized urban transportation model. In this way, it is easier to meet the request of trans-portation policy analysis without increasing modeling difficulties significantly.