公共汽车线网调整乘客风险识别方法

乘客风险识别对优化公共汽车线网调整方案、提高线网调整可实施性、制定社会风险管控策略具有重要意义。提出一种基于乘客感知的差别—矩阵法来识别乘客风险。在乘客满意度调查与线网调整乘客期盼调查的基础上，结合现状满意度水平、线网调整期盼高低与优化方案优化程度三者之间的差异建立三维矩阵模型，划分风险区域以确定风险指标排序。通过对高风险指标和乘客个体属性相关性影响进行显著性分析，识别高风险群体。模型结果表明：武汉市公共汽车线网调整过程中高风险指标为换乘次数，其中女性群体、老年群体、自由职业者和公务员以及乘车频率较低的群体为高风险群体，应针对各群体特性加强制定相应风险管控措施。

Risk Identification for Passengers in Bus Network Adjustment

To identify affected passengers has a great significance in the process of bus network optimiza-tion due to the fact that it is able to reduce the risk of implementation as well as controlling social risk. The main objective of this study is to propose a matrix of accommodating difference between passengers' per-ceptions to identify those affected passenger groups. Such the approach is developed based passenger satis-faction survey and public opinion survey towards bus network adjustment. A three-dimensional matrix which stores the difference among status quo satisfaction level, public expectation about plan and the simu-lated results of plan is generated to target high risk areas for selecting indicators. A correlation analysis be-tween selected indicators and personal attributes is further implemented to identify the affected groups caused by bus network optimization. The results reveal that number of transfer is selected as the most sig-nificant indicators and highly affected groups are women, the old group, self-employment, public officers, and less-frequent bus riders. As a result, a series of risk control strategies should be formulated in respect to different groups.