以旅游功能为主的城市轨道交通线路客流预测方法

以深圳轨道交通8号线为例,分析了以旅游功能为主的轨道交通线路的客流特征。针对旅游客流特征,改进了传统的城市轨道交通客流预测方法,利用RP/SP(显示偏好/陈述偏好)调查等手段,提出建立旅游客流预测模型的方法。此方法改变了以往只预测各个预测年限工作日客流数据的惯例,提出针对淡季和旺季的工作日、周末\节假日分别进行客流预测,每个预测年限预测4套客流预测数据,为深圳轨道交通8号线工程可行性研究提供了必要且充足的数据支撑。

Research on Passenger Flow Forecasting Method of Tourism-oriented Unban Rail Transit Line

Taking Shenzhen metro Line 8 as an example, the passenger flow characteristics of tourism-oriented urban rail lines are analyzed. The traditional passenger flow forecasting method is improved according to the tourism characteristics, RP / SP survey and other means are used to establish a fore-casting model. In which, the convention that the passenger flow prediction data are confined to working days only is changed,a new prediction that covers the data of working days,weekends and holidays in both off-season and busy sea-son is proposed,thus four sets of data in each forecasting pe-riod will be collected. The research results provide necessary and sufficient data to support the feasibility study of Shenzhen metro Line 8 operation.