港口吞吐量计量预测分析

通过应用国际航运的派生需求理论和计量经济分析方法,采用计量经济学中时间趋势、对数等变量分析手段,新设计了一个能精确预测港口吞吐量的经济计量方程。通过使用该计量方程,并引用厦门港吞吐量历年数据,采用两种不同的计量技术方法对厦门港2005～2008年的集装箱吞吐量进行预测,两种方法的预测结果差异很小。论文同时对两种预测方法获得的预测结果进行了误差分析,并计算出误差结果。

Econometrics Forecasting Analysis of Harbor Throughput

Throughput Forecasting is significant for harbor investment and planning. There is too much errors in throughout forecasting results by traditional method. This paper introduces international shipping derivation demand theory and the econometrics to design a new throughput forecasting equation that can forecast harbor throughout accurately. By using this equation and the data of Xiamen Harbor's throughout over the years, Xiamen Harbor's throughput from 2005 to 2008 is predicted with two different estimating methods. The difference of the two predicted results for both of which error analysis was carried out is small.