湍流动能的产生与飞行中严重的晴空颠簸

基于湍流动能倾向方程，推导出了其只含风切变和大气稳定度的简化方程．根据收集到的100例飞行中晴空颠簸的实际资料，利用环境技术应用(ETA)模式对该简化方程进行了检验．研究表明，仅利用湍流动能的产生预测晴空颠簸并不一定有效，而需要对湍流动能的产生项进行诊断．预报颠簸时，湍流动能倾向方程中的耗散项不能忽略；ETA模式的垂直分辨率和模式的设计者给定的大气稳定度对预报的准确性也有影响。

Generation of Turbulent Kinetic Energy and Severe Clear Air Turbulence in Flight

Based on the tendency equation of turbulent kinetic energy, its simplified equation including only wind shear and air stability was derived. In addition, this simplified equation was tested using the environmental technical application (ETA) mode and the data of 100 cases of clear air turbulence (CAT) in flight. The research shows that the prediction of CAT in flight should not be based on only the generation of turbulent kinetic energy, and it is necessary to diagnose the generation item for turbulent kinetic energy. The dissipation item in the tendency equation of turbulent kinetic energy can not be neglected in the prediction of CAT, and the vertical divisional rate of the ETA mode and the air stability given by the mode designer have also an effect on the precision of CAT prediction.