基于灰理论的港口吞吐量预测研究

港口吞吐量是港口建设的重要依据,有效预测港口吞吐量,才能使港口在海洋运输业中发挥重要作用。灰理论预测可以在少量信息、不完全数据的情况下,揭示港口吞吐量的发展变化特征,是研究港口吞吐量的有效工具。本文对上海港货物吞吐量进行研究的结果表明,应用灰理论对港口吞吐量建立灰色模型GM(1,1)进行短期预测,其结果有较高的实用价值。

Research on Forecast of Port Throughput Capacity Based on Grey Theory

Port throughput capacity is an important basis for the construction of port. Only an effective forecast throughput, could port play an important role in the marine transportation industry. Grey forecast theory, in a small amount of information, where data is not fully , could reveal features of the development and changes in the throughput of the port. So it is an effective tool in research the port throughput capacity .This article conducts the research to the throughput of Shanghai port , and the result of the research indicates that the short-term-forecast basing on grey theory has higher value in practice by using grey model GM (1,1).