危险货物道路运输风险复杂系统及风险测度模型与应用——以液氯运输为例

基于系统整体最优的危险货物道路运输风险系统分析及风险测度研究，是实现规避高风险路段的基础关键技术.本文以危险货物道路运输风险为研究对象，结合典型区域特征，进行了危险货物道路运输风险的系统分析，提出了危险货物道路运输风险复杂系统的概念.在此基础上，提出危险货物道路运输风险测度模型，并以典型危险货物液氯道路运输为例进行应用研究.在危险货物道路运输风险测度模型研究中，以泄漏事故导致的暴露人口风险损失和环境敏感区域损失两项指标作为评价对象，结合ALOHA模拟泄漏事故情景并将扩散情况载入ArcMap，分析泄漏事故所带来的价值损失.考虑运输成本，建立以系统整体最优--风险最小和运输成本最低的危险货物道路运输双目标规划模型.最后，基于实例结合蚁群算法对模型和方法的实用性和有效性进行验证.

Complex System of the Risk on Dangerous Goods Transportation & Risk Assessment Model and Application：Take Liquid Chlorine as an Example

The risk system analysis and risk measurement of dangerous goods road transportation based on the overall optimal system are the key technologies to avoid the high risk section. This paper, taking the risk of dangerous goods as the research object, combines the typical regional characteristics, carries on the system analysis of the dangerous goods road transportation risk and puts forward the concept complex system of the risk on dangerous goods transportation. Based on this, the paper puts forward the risk measurement model of road transport of dangerous goods, and takes the application of liquid chlorine road transportation of typical dangerous goods as an example. In the study of risk measurement model of road transport of dangerous goods, two indicators of exposure population risk loss and environment-sensitive area loss caused by leakage accident are taken as object of evaluation, combined with ALOHA to simulate the situation of leakage accident and the diffusion into ArcMap to analyze the loss caused by leakage accident. Considering transportation cost, a dual objective programming model for road transportation of dangerous goods with the best overall system, the minimum risk and the lowest transportation cost, is established. Finally, an example is used to verify the practicability and validity of the model by using the ant colony algorithm.