基于Nested Logit模型的共享单车选择行为研究

近两年来，共享单车迅速发展，已有研究较少从微观角度来阐释共享单车的选择行为.本文基于随机效用理论，构建Nested Logit模型，选取出行目的、接驳时间、在车时间、停车时间、费用等出行特征变量，选取下雨(雪)、空气质量、气温、风力等级等天气状况变量，选取年龄、性别、收入等社会经济变量作为效用函数的特征变量，采用D-optimal法设计问卷，在济南市开展共享单车实证调查.基于收集到的样本进行参数标定，找出影响共享单车及其他出行方式选择的关键影响因素；并对共享单车的乘车费用与接驳时间进行弹性分析，明确了共享单车乘车费用与接驳时间变化对短途出行结构的影响.

Choice Behavior of Bike-sharing Based on Nested Logit Model

In the past two years, bike-sharing have developed rapidly. However, few studies have clarified the choice behavior of bike- sharing from a microscopic perspective. Based on the random utility theory, a Nested Logit model is constructed to study the choice behavior of bike- sharing in this paper. We selected travel destination, access time, travel time, parking time, cost from trip characteristics, and selected raining (snowing), air quality, temperature and wind level from weather conditions, and selected age, gender and income from socioeconomic attributes as the explanatory variables for the utility function. The D-optimal method is used to design a questionnaire and an empirical survey is conducted in Jinan. Based on the collected samples, the parameters are identified to find the key factors affecting the choice of travel mode. The elasticities analysis of the ride cost and access time of shared bicycles explain the impact of changes in travel expenses and access time on travel mode choice.