动态不确定性环境下的地铁车站应急疏散仿真建模

针对动态不确定环境下乘客初始状态、疏散行为、全局疏散路径不确定等问题，提出基于Agent的疏散行为动态切换模型，并引入选择变更代价实现了多种疏散行为的动态切换；考虑与常态仿真衔接构建疏散空间衔接关系，并提出基于改进Dijkstra算法的全局疏散路径搜索方法；最后，以某车站突发事故场景为例进行多个应急预案的仿真评估.结果验证模型具有可行性，并能更真实反映动态不确定环境对乘客疏散过程的影响，进一步提高了疏散仿真精度.

Simulation Model of Evacuation Process in Metro Station under Dynamic and Uncertain Environment

The dynamic and uncertain environment will cause the uncertainty of the initial status of passengers, evacuation behavior, and the global evacuation path. Considering those problems mentioned above, an agent-based model of dynamic evacuation behavior switch is established, which is able to describe passengers’ switch from various evacuation behaviors with the cost of change. On the other hand, according to the spatial cohesion from the normal simulation, the approach for global path finding based on optimized Dijkstra algorithm is proposed. Finally, simulation on emergency evacuation is conducted in the case of a particular metro station. The result validates that the model is feasible and can reflect environmental effects on passengers’evacuation process dynamically. Meanwhile, the simulation precision is further improved, which enables to evaluate emergency plan with accuracy.