基于小客车燃油核算模型的政策节能效果分析

近年来，快速增长的私人小客车带来的能耗排放问题日益严重，如何构建面向私人小客车的燃油核算模型，分析不同需求管理政策的宏观节能效果，是解决城市交通节能减排问题的关键.本文针对传统私人小客车能耗调查方式所获得数据准确性较差、无法满足精细化管理的问题，利用现有调查数据和监测数据，基于“OLS(Ordinary Least Square) +稳健标准差” 验证法，分析油耗显著性影响因素，提出基于交通大数据的私人小客车能耗核算模型，以实测数据验证其可靠性和有效性，并分析了不同交通需求管理政策(含组合政策)宏观节能效果.结果表明，当政策效果指标变化率相同时，实行“拥堵收费+控制大排量小客车数量”政策对于减少小客车燃油消耗总量的效果最为明显.

Energy-saving Effect Analysis of Policies Based on Passenger Cars Fuel Accounting Model

In recent years, the problem of energy consumption and emission pollution caused by fast growing private cars is becoming more and more serious. How to build a fuel accounting model for private passenger cars and analyzing the macro energy saving effect of different TDM (Traffic Demand Management) policies are essential to urban traffic related energy saving and emission reduction. Considering the problem that the accuracy of energy consumption data derived from conventional survey for private passenger cars is poor and unable to meet the delicacy management requirements of urban traffic energy conservation and emission reduction. In this study, using the existing survey data and monitoring data and based on the method of “OLS( Ordinary Least Square) + Robust standard deviation”, the significant influencing factors are analyzed，and an accounting model of energy consumption for private passenger car based on traffic big data and applies it to the macro analysis of energy saving effect of TDM policy is proposed. The reliability and effectiveness of the proposed model are then verified by using the measured data of Beijing. Finally, the macro effect of private car's energy saving under different TDM policies (including combined policies) are analyzed. The result shows that when the policy effect indicators change at the same rate, the total fuel consumption reduction resulted from the policy combination of congestion charging and controlling the number of large-displacement passenger cars is largest.