由2010年一季度汽车产销量分析全年车市发展

根据2010年一季度汽车产销量数据，分析2010年车市发展趋势，预测2010年全年汽车产销量，给汽车行业有关部门提供参考。采用了“车市波动分析法”，制作出以季度为单位的新的参数表，用扩张系数足值判断车市走势。分析后指出，虽然2010年一季度汽车产销量增幅较大，但扩张系数K大幅度回落34％，发展趋势不容乐观，存在供大于求，增长率大幅回落风险，建议适当降温。认为2010年汽车产销量1568～1600万辆是一个按良性循环正常运行的稳健目标。

Analysis on Automotive Market Trend from the Automotive Production and Sales in the First Quarter of 2010

Based on automotive production and sales of first quarter in 2010, the developing trend of automotive market in 2010 is analyzed and production and sales of 2010 is predicted. It provides reference for automotive manufacturers, dealers and decision-makers. Fluctuation analytical method of auto market is adopted. A new parameter chart is made by every season unit. Using expanding coefficient K the trend of auto market is judged. It is pointed that the automotive production and sales have been increased greatly in the first quarter of 2010, but expanding coefficient K is declined 34%, the development trend is not optimistic. The supply is more than demand and increase rate is decreased sharply. It is suggested that the production must slow down. It is considered that the production and sales in 2010 will be 15.68 - 16 million and it is the goal in normal operation and healthy circulation.