灰色系统理论在汽车齿轮寿命预测中的应用

探讨了利用灰色系统理论基于GM(1,1)模型拟合汽车齿轮可靠性寿命试验数据的方法,该灰色模型可以依据较少的试验数据预测出汽车齿轮寿命试验的后续数据。实例计算表明,模型的精度符合残差检验、后验差检验和关联度检验的要求,计算值与实际测量数值吻合程度较好,能够满足试验要求;将灰色系统理论用于产品的失效分析,可解决以往需通过大量试验才能确定的问题,节省了试验时间。

Application of Gray System Theory in Predicting Life of Automobile Gear

This paper discusses the method of fitting about reliability life test data of automobile gear by applying gray system theory and based on GM(1,1)model,this gray model can predict the subsequent data of automobile gear life test according to fewer test data.The results show that the accuracy of models meet the requirements of residual verification,later check difference verification and relevant degree verification,the calculation value and actual measuring value conform very well,and can meet the requirements in tests;applying gray system theory to the product failure analysis can solve the problem which can be determined through a lot of tests before,and save the test time.