Dynamic forecasting of urban shopping travel demand |
| |
| Institution: | 1. School of Resources and Environment, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China;2. College of Geography and Ocean Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China;3. Central China Research Center for Economic and Social Development, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China;4. Centre for Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Cities, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China;5. State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building Science, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China;6. Network for Education and Research on Peace and Sustainability (NERPS), Hiroshima University, Hiroshima 739-8530, Japan;7. College of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400700, China;8. Hunan Institute of Economic Geography, Hunan University of Finance and Economics, Changsha 410205, China;1. Texas A&M Transportation Institute, 505 E Huntland Dr., Suite 455, Austin, TX 78752, United States;2. Texas Department of Transportation, 125 E 11th St., Austin, TX 78701, United States;3. Texas A&M Transportation Institute, 4050 Rio Bravo Dr., Suite 151, El Paso, TX 79902, United States |
| |
| Abstract: | A time-dependent model for commercial activity location and travel demand is developed based on the assumptions that instantaneous interzonal shopping travel demand can be described by a gravity formulation, whereas the incremental individual zonal retail space allocations are such that they maximize the aggregate, net resulting profit from retail sales. Over time, link travel costs are updated as a function of the current link volumes, whereas commercial space development costs are updated as a function of current zonal activity levels. Constraints on commercial space allocation are at the individual zonal level, as well as at the aggregate level of the overall area. The objective function for the corresponding mathematical program is then linearized, and the model programmed for implementation using a linear programming routine. The results of several simulations illustrate the dynamic impacts various urban development policies have on commercial activity location. In particular, periodic oscillations in zonal activity levels, as well as sudden changes in the spatial pattern of interzonal shopping travel, may appear for certain model parameter values. Several directions for future refinement of the model, including inclusion of economic variables and interaction with other urban activities, are discussed in conclusion. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
