| 基于复杂系统脆性的商渔船碰撞事故分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 尹相达,李先强,赵学军,刘永利,刘运江.基于复杂系统脆性的商渔船碰撞事故分析[J].中国航海,2019(3):62-66. |
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| 作者姓名： | 尹相达 李先强 赵学军 刘永利 刘运江 |
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| 作者单位： | 青岛远洋船员职业学院航海系;威海海事局指挥中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 中远海运集团商船中国沿海渔区安全航行技术研究专项资金(2017-1-H-011) |
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| 摘 要： | 为更深入地研究商渔船碰撞事故的形成机理,根据商渔船碰撞事故的系统特点,引入复杂系统脆性理论。以12起商渔船碰撞事故的调查报告为数据来源,划分碰撞事故致因子系统并建立脆性关联模型;利用信息熵理论、集对分析方法建立脆性联系熵计算公式,采用突变级数法确定权系数;根据各脆性因子在12起事故中出现的频繁度确定其脆性关联性,计算出各子系统的脆性波动熵和脆性联系熵。依据脆性熵理论得出人的不安全行为是事故的主要原因,船舶行为的规范管理是避免事故发生的关键,为商渔船碰撞理论研究和实践指导提供一种新的方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 商渔船碰撞 复杂系统 脆性联系 熵 |
Analysis on Collisions Between Merchant Ship and Fishing Vessel from Angle of Brittleness of Complex System |
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| YIN Xiangda,LI Xianqiang,ZHAO Xuejun,LIU Yongli,LIU Yunjiang.Analysis on Collisions Between Merchant Ship and Fishing Vessel from Angle of Brittleness of Complex System[J].Navigation of China,2019(3):62-66. |
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| Authors: | YIN Xiangda LI Xianqiang ZHAO Xuejun LIU Yongli LIU Yunjiang |
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| Institution: | (Navigation Department of Qingdao Ocean Shipping Mariners College, Qingdao 266071, China;Command Center of Weihai Maritime Safety Administration, Weihai 264200, China) |
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| Abstract: | The concept of the brittleness of complex system is introduced to analyze the features of the collisions between merchant ships and fishing vessels. The brittle link model is constructed on the grounds of the brittle theory and the accident-causing factors extracted from 12 collision accidents between merchant ships and fishing vessels. The entropies of brittle link is formulated on the basis of the samples of the twelve collisions, showing that the human subsystem has the strongest brittle correlation with the collision system, and the vessel management subsystem has the largest value of fluctuation entropy. Safety measures are proposed accordingly for practical guidance. |
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| Keywords: | collision merchant ship and fishing vessel complex system brittle link entropy |
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