管段关联性对腐蚀管线失效可能性评估的影响

为了对管道进行完整性管理,需要对管道在腐蚀情况下的失效压力进行计算或预测,而影响失效压力的诸多因素中就包括管段的空间关联性。提出了计算关联系数的方法,同时分析了管段关联系数对管道的整体失效可能性评估的影响。最后结合实例,利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法,用所提出的方法在某管线进行了具体应用,并对结果进行了分析和讨论,结果表明:与那些没有考虑到腐蚀管线的管段关联性的评估结果相比,结合管段关联性的本方法在提高对管线失效可能性评估的准确度上可以提高近30%。

Effect of Pipe Section Correlation on the Failure Possibility Evaluation of Corroded Pipeline

In order to performing the pipeline integrity management,it is required that failure pressure of the pipeline in a corrosion conditions be calculated and predicted.However,of the so many factors affecting the failure pressure,the spatial correlation is involved.The paper proposed the method calculating the relevant coefficient,at the same time,analyzed the effect of the pipe section correlation coefficient on the possibility evaluation of pipeline failures.Finally,in combined with practice example and adopted Monte Carlo methods,the given method is applied to some pipeline,the results analyzed and discussed,show that in contrast with the result without pay attention to spatial correlation,ours,gained with special correlation considered,can enhance the veracity of the possibility evaluation of corroded pipeline failures by about 30%.