四川交通运输系统计量经济模型

根据系统工程和系统动力学原理建立了由12个联立方程式组成的四川省综合运输计量经济模型．从经济意义、统计检验、计量经济学和模型稳定性4个方面对模型进行检验．检验结果表明该模型满足计量经济学检验,对1992～2001年四川省交通运输指标分析，动态模拟结果没有出现误差率超过20％的异常情况，整个模型的误差率为4．17％，说明模型的精确度较高，模型运行较稳定．

Econometric Model for Transportation System of Sichuan Province

An econometric model consisting of 12 explicit formulas for analyzing the transportation system of Sichuan province, China, was derived according to the principles of systems engineering and system dynamics. The model was tested in terms of economic significance, statistics, econometrics and stability, and the results verify that the it conforms with the statistical economics test. The statistical data of the transportation system of Sichuan Province from 1992 to 2001 were taken as the inputs for the model. The error rates during the dynamic simulation are less than 20%, and the error rate is 4.17% for the whole model, indicating reasonable precise and stability of the model.