城市快速路行程时间的统计分析与预测

实时交通预测分析一直是ITS领域一个重要的研究课题，它的研究进展也直接影响着ITS子系统ATMS（Advanced Traffic Management System）的实施。文章以北京二环快速路为研究对象，先使用浮动车数据计算出路段在不同时段的行程时间，再采用统计分析方法得出目标路段在相同时段下的行程时间的分布规律；在此基础上，对相同时段不同路段、相同路段不同时段的行程时间分布测度进行对比分析，并将其和道路服务水平进行对照，得出了若干有意义的结论和建议；最后，对行程时间计算结果进行了检验和评价，证明了计算结果的准确性。

Travel Time Statistical Analysis and Prediction for the Urban Freeway

Short-time traffic forecasting and analyzing are important issues in intelligent transport systems （ITS）. It directly impacts on the implement of the sub-system--advanced traffic management system （ATMS） of ITS. Based on the travel time computed by floating and with statistical methods, this paper mainly studied the travel time distribution car data laws of the objective road section on the second ring of Beijing city. Based on this, a comparison analysis was done in the travel time distribution measure for different road sections at the same period or the same road section at different periods, then, these distributions were contrasted with the road service level, some useful results and suggestions are advanced. At last, the travel time result from real survey data is checked with the calculated results.