基于货运强度变化规律的货运量预测方法

目前我国部分地区货运量统计数据存在收集不全、统计口径不一致及社会经济环境变化大等问题,导致常规的时间序列预测法和回归预测法难以在这些地区应用。鉴于此,分析了国内外货运强度变化的规律,指出人均GDP和第三产业所占比例是影响货运强度的主要因子,提出了通过模糊聚类方法对地区货运发展阶段进行定位,找出其发展阶段所对应的货运强度值,进而提出依据人均GDP和第三产业所占比例进行货运量预测的方法。最后对邢台市的货运量预测进行了实证研究。

A Freight Volume Prediction Method Based on the Change Law of Freight Strength

There are many problems of the freight volume statistics in some parts of our country,such as data insufficiency,consistent statistical scope and the change of social economy.These problems make the application of time series forecasting and regression forecasting unsuitable in these areas.Therefore,the variation rule of the intensity of freight has been analyzed at home and abroad,and indicated that the main factor which affect the intensity of freight are per capita GDP and proportion of tertiary industry.The fuzzy clustering has been used in finding out the area freight developmental stage and the intensity value of freight in different stages,and then forecast the freight volume according to per capita GDP and proportion of tertiary industry.At last,the method is verified in Xingtai.