Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China |
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| Affiliation: | 1. International Business School, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062, China;2. Institute of Cross-Process Perception and Control, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China;3. School of Economics and Management, Xidian University, Xi’an 710071, China;4. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;5. Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong;1. School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230026, PR China;2. School of Business, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410083, PR China;3. Léonard de Vinci Pôle Universitaire, Research Center, 92 916 Paris La Défense, France;1. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China;2. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China;3. Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing, Beijing, China;4. Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management, Beijing 100081, China;1. School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, China;2. Institute of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China;3. School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China;1. State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;2. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, No.800 Dongchuan Road, Shanghai 200240, China;3. State Key Laboratory of Power Systems, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;4. Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Heidelberg University, 69115 Heidelberg, Germany;1. School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China;2. College of Transportation Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China;3. Department of Business, James Cook University Singapore 387380, Singapore;4. Division of Shipping Management, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Busan 49112, Republic of Korea |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, we first analyze the historical trends in road transportation energy consumption and GDP in developed economies to find out the development characteristics of road energy consumption. The two indexes present obvious ‘S’ type patterns. Then, in order to explore the current status and future trend of road energy transportation in China, we employ path analysis to analyze the impact mechanism of the factors related to road transportation energy consumption. Next, we adopt the BMA model to select the core factors related to road transportation energy consumption in China, and on the basis of the model selection as well as univariate (ETS & ARIMA models) and multivariate (multiple regression) models, the road transportation energy consumption is analyzed and forecast. The results showed that the road transportation energy consumption rises by 0.33 percent for every percent increase in GDP and by 1.26 percentage points for every percent increase in urbanization. The road transportation energy consumption in China is expected to reach around 226181.1 ktoe by the end of 2015, and about 347,363 ktoe by 2020. |
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| Keywords: | Road transportation energy consumption Trend analysis Path analysis BMA ETS ARIMA |
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