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基于城市中心区拥堵不断加剧的现状，同时也考虑到未来城市人口增长、用地调整，以及城市化和机动化进程不断加速发展的趋势，本文依托西南某中心城市缓解拥堵重点项目，合理规划未来城市交通系统.决策定量化是未来城市交通规划的决策趋势，而交通模型是重要的技术支撑手段.在居民出行等调查数据的基础上，采用四阶段构架进行交通需求模型的建模.在方式划分阶段，根据家庭是否有车分别采用NL和MNL模型，并在交通分配时定制符合本地城市特点的路阻函数.最后，通过模型测试评价不同规划策略和方案的交通运输效果.

Empirical Research Method on Transportation Demand Modeling

This paper is based on a key project of a central city in southwest of China.It aims at alleviating the traffic congestion of cities.With the increases of city population and vehicle ownership and motorization,the quantitative strategic decision for the transportation system planning is rather important and urgent than ever before.And the demand model formulation is a key foundation for the planning.To conduct quantitative analysis on the planning schemes,the four-step transportation demand model is developed based on the household survey.The NL and MNL models are used according to the vehicle ownership in the process of mode split,and the volume delay function is determined in traffic assignment.The comprehensive schemes based on planning,construction,policy and management are finally tested to evaluate the possible effect.