| 运用弹性系数法预测北京机动车保有量 |
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| 引用本文： | 曹晓飞,邵春福.运用弹性系数法预测北京机动车保有量[J].道路交通与安全,2008,8(4):31-34. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曹晓飞 邵春福 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 |
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| 摘 要： | 综述了机动车保有量的预测方法，包括时间序列回归法、神经网络法、弹性系数法等，分析了不同方法的特点，给出了相关启示。结合北京经济发展趋势，运用弹性系数法对机动车保有量进行了预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 弹性系数法 预测 机动车保有量 |
Forecast of vehicle amount by elastic coefficient method in Beijng |
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| Cao Xiaofei,Shao Chunfu.Forecast of vehicle amount by elastic coefficient method in Beijng[J].Road Traffic & Safety,2008,8(4):31-34. |
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| Authors: | Cao Xiaofei Shao Chunfu |
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| Institution: | Cao Xiaofei,Shao Chunfu(School of City Traffic of Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044) |
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| Abstract: | The methods of vehicle amount forecast are analyzed,including time series regression,artificial neural network and elastic coefficient method.Different characteristics of these methods are listed and related conclusions are also given.Based on the background of economic development trend in Beijing,the vehicle amount is forecasted by the method of elastic coefficient. |
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| Keywords: | elastic coefficient method forecast vehicle amount |
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