| 基于ARIMA模型的轨道不平顺状态预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 程茗,白文飞.基于ARIMA模型的轨道不平顺状态预测研究[J].武汉水运工程学院学报,2013(5):1041-1045. |
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| 作者姓名： | 程茗 白文飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 |
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| 摘 要： | 轨道是列车运行的基础,轨道不平顺状态是影响行车安全的关键因素.为保障列车安全、平稳和不间断的运行,轨道必须具有高平顺性.根据轨道不平顺变化特点,文中利用ARIMA（自回整合归移动平均）模型对轨道不平顺状态进行预测,并且采集了京九线下行463.8 km处2008年2月第二次检测至2008年12月第一次检测的TQI历史检测数据对模型的有效性进行了检验,结果表明ARIMA模型能够对两次大修作业之间的轨道的不平顺状态进行较为准确地预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 轨道不平顺 预测 TQI ARIMA模型 |
Research on the Prediction for Track Irregularity Based on ARIMA Model |
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| Authors: | CHENG Ming BAI Wenfei |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China;) |
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| Abstract: | Track is the basis of traffic train operations.Track irregularity is the key factor in affecting the railway transportation safety.Track regularity is necessary to operate the trains more secure、more smoothly and longer-lasting.Based on the characteristics of the development of track irregularity,ARIMA model has been developed in this article to make prediction for track irregularity.And TQIs of Jingjiu Railway line,which were gathered at 463.8km in February 2008 to December 2008,were used to verify the validity of model.And the results show good prediction accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | track irregularity prediction track quality index（TQI） ARIMA model |
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