| 铁路旅客周转量的改进等维新息模型预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 左武,符卓.铁路旅客周转量的改进等维新息模型预测[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2007,4(5):88-92. |
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| 作者姓名： | 左武 符卓 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南大学,交通运输工程学院,湖南,长沙,410075 |
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| 摘 要： | 铁路旅客周转量预测不仅影响铁路客运计划组织工作,它还体现了客运市场中铁路运输的市场控制力。针对灰色模型对数据的要求,采用滑动平均处理和对数化处理原始数据,并采用等维新息模型对铁路旅客周转量进行预测,通过与实际情况和GM(1,1)模型的预测效果的对比可以发现,该模型可以通过检验并且预测效果良好。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路运输 旅客周转量 灰色预测 GM(1 1)模型 等维新息模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-7029（2007）05-0088-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-03-23 |
Forecast of railway passenger turnover with improved gray model |
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| ZUO Wu,FU Zhuo.Forecast of railway passenger turnover with improved gray model[J].Journal of Railway Science and Engineering,2007,4(5):88-92. |
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| Authors: | ZUO Wu FU Zhuo |
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| Institution: | School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China |
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| Abstract: | The forecast of railway passenger traffic turnover not only influenced the plan of railway passenger transportation but also embodied the ability of controlling in the market of passenger transportation.According to the data demand of the grey model,the slide average and the logarithmic transformation was adopted to deal with the basic data.Then the railway passenger traffic turnover was forecasted by the equal-dimension and new information model proposed.This model was checked.Compared with the real data and the result of GM(1,1),the forecasting result of this model is satisfactory. |
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| Keywords: | railway transportation railway passenger traffic turnover gray forecasts GM(1 1) model equal-dimension and new information model |
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