| Abstract: | This study adopted a 5-year moving average to calculate the transition probability of deck officers in Taiwan from 1993-1998 at different levels in the hierarchy. An absorbing Markov transition matrix was also constructed to forecast the terms of seniority and the annual supply of deck officers. In addition, this work applied the GM (1,1) model of Grey theory to forecast the annual demand of deck officers, and used cross analysis to investigate the manpower supply and demand of ocean deck officers in Taiwan. Results in this study can provide a valuable reference for pertinent authorities when determining the manpower policy of shipping companies in Taiwan. |
