| 三次指数平滑法预测大连港货物吞吐量 |
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| 引用本文： | 阎善郁,李丰岩,荣文竽. 三次指数平滑法预测大连港货物吞吐量[J]. 大连铁道学院学报, 2009, 0(2): 44-47 |
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| 作者姓名： | 阎善郁 李丰岩 荣文竽 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连交通大学土木与安全工程学院;沈阳铁路局运输处;大连交通大学交通运输工程学院; |
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| 摘 要： | 根据大连港近年的货物吞吐量数据分析，发现大连港货物吞吐量与时间呈二次曲线变化趋势，分析各种预测方法的特点及适用范围，选择三次指数平滑法，根据1996～2007年历史数据，对今后三年的大连港货物吞吐量进行预测，得出到2010年，大连港货物吞吐量将达到2．8亿吨，超出规划数值．建议加快大连港基础设施建设，完善集疏运体系，以应对大连港货物吞吐量的快速增长．
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| 关 键 词： | 港口 吞吐量 预测 三次指数平滑 |
Dalian Port Throughput Capacity of Goods Forecast by Cubic Exponential Smoothing Method |
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| YAN Shan-yu,LI Feng-yan,RONG Wen-yu. Dalian Port Throughput Capacity of Goods Forecast by Cubic Exponential Smoothing Method[J]. Journal of Dalian Railway Institute, 2009, 0(2): 44-47 |
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| Authors: | YAN Shan-yu LI Feng-yan RONG Wen-yu |
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| Affiliation: | YAN Shan-yu1,LI Feng-yan2,RONG Wen-yu3(1.School of Civil , Safety Engineering,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian 116028,China,2.Transportation Department,Shenyang Railway Bureau,Shenyang 110001,3.School of Traffic & Transportation,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the feature and application of the forecast methods,cubic exponential smoothing method is choosed to forecast Dalian Port throughput capacity of goods.The forecast is carried out for 2008 to 2010 based on the volume data between 1996 and 2007.It reaches a conclusion that Dalian Port throughput capacity of goods is 280 millions which is exceed original plan.Thus a proposal is put forward that the infrastructure of Dalian Port should be accelerated,and the system of distributing traffic should be... |
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| Keywords: | Dalian port throughput capacity forecast cubic exponential smoothing method |
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