| 基于熵值法的城市汽车保有量组合预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王琦,王花兰. 基于熵值法的城市汽车保有量组合预测[J]. 交通科技与经济, 2009, 11(6): 53-55 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王琦 王花兰 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 分析灰色系统、多元回归、指数平滑、神经网络4种预测方法的特点并利用它们分别对城市汽车保有量进行预测，在此基础上通过熵值法确定各预测模型的加权系数，建立组合预测模型，最后将1995-2007年汽车保有量的各预测值与实际值进行比较，结果表明该组合预测法精度较高，实用性更强。
|
| 关 键 词： | 汽车保有量 熵值法 组合预测 神经网络 灰色系统 |
Combination Forecasting of Vehicle Population Based on the Entropy Method |
| |
| WANG Qi,WANG Hua-lan. Combination Forecasting of Vehicle Population Based on the Entropy Method[J]. Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications, 2009, 11(6): 53-55 |
| |
| Authors: | WANG Qi WANG Hua-lan |
| |
| Affiliation: | (College of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China) |
| |
| Abstract: | It analyzes the features of four prediction methods which are gray system, multivariant regression,exponential smoothing and neural network. They are used to forecast the vehicle population separately. And on this basis,we determine weights of each prediction model acoording to entropy method and set up the combination forecasting model. At last, the predictive value of vehicle population is compared with the actual value from 1995 to 2007. The results show that combination forecasting method has higher accuracy andmore practical than the single forecasting model. |
| |
| Keywords: | vehicle population entropy method combination forecasting neural network gray system |
| 本文献已被 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
