基于非集计理论的高速铁路旅客乘车选择行为研究

为研究高速铁路旅客乘车行为选择机理，以非集计离散选择模型理论为依据，分析旅客乘车选择的影响因素，结合2013 年京沪高速铁路旅客出行RP调查数据，以G类高速列车和D类高速列车作为旅客乘车方式选择肢，设置影响旅客乘车选择的特性变量，即旅客主体特性、出行特性、列车服务特性及相应的取值方法，建立旅客乘车方案选择MNL模型.运用SPSS对模型参数进行标定，结果表明，公费出行、月收入较高及出差的旅客偏好选择G类高速列车；自费出行、月收入较低及旅游探亲的旅客偏好选择D类高速列车.上述结论与调查结果基本一致，命中率等参数的计算亦验证了模型的有效性.

Boarding Choice for High-speed Railway Passengers Based on Disaggregate Theory

In order to comprehend the boarding choice mechanism of railway passengers, this paper analyzes major factors on the base of disaggregate discrete choice theory. Referring to the survey data of travel of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway in 2013, three travel ways including G and D high-speed trains are selected as a alternative set, and characteristic variables affecting mode choice and the method of getting its values are determined, then a multinomial Logit model (MNL) is developed finally. The model’s parameters are calibrated by applying SPSS. The results show that passengers on business with government scholarship and higher monthly income prefer G high-speed trains, and passengers on visit with own scholarship and lower monthly income prefer D high-speed trains. This completion is consistent with the survey results. Finally, model’s validity is testified by calculating the hit ratio and other parameters.