基于物元法的交通政策评价方法与城市交通拥堵

近年来，交通拥堵已成为城市交通系统无法回避的问题。尾号限行作为一种政策性管理措施，能够在短期内大幅削减车辆出行，从而缓解城市道路过于拥堵的现象。但如果长期实行将会对社会经济、产业经济、居民生活产生一系列的影响。从尾号限行政策出发，分析交通政策对交通拥堵改善以及社会经济发展的作用，提出基于物元法的交通政策评价方法，为管理者制定有效的综合管理政策提供新思路。

A traffic policy evaluation method based on the matter-element analysis and the urban traffic jams

Traffic congestion has become that influences the most important factor the regular operation of urban transport system. Tail number limit can substantially reduce vehicle flow as a management policy in the short term by reducing the phenomenon of urban traffic jam. However, this policy will influence socio-economy, industrial economy, if carried out for a long term. Based on the last digit on a license plate as an example, analysis is made on the traffic policy on the improvement of the traffic jams and the development of social economy. A matter-element method is provided for managers to make more effective comprehensive management policy.