港口航行环境安全组合评价模式

为解决对同一事物采用不同的安全评价方法而产生的结论多样性问题，提出了组合评价模式。以中国沿海10个港口的航行环境安全程度为例，采用主成分分析法、因子分析法、TOPSIS法、模糊综合评价法和灰色综合评价法，得到了5组不同的排序结果，再用序号总和理论与众数理论对这5种方法所得结果作组合处理，得到惟一排序结论。该结论与客观实际相符，优于任何单一方法的排序结果，得到了船长们的认可，表明使用组合评价模式，有助于弥补单一评价方法的缺陷。

Combined assessment model of harbour navigation environment safety assessment

In order to solve the assessment diversity on the same thing caused by different assessment methods, combined assessment model(CAM) was proposed. 10 seaports of China were used as a sample case of safety level ordering assessment of navigation environment. The methods of principal component analysis(PCA), factor analysis, TOPSIS, fuzzy aggregate assessment, gray aggregate assessment were employed to the case separately, and 5 different group results were obtained. The theory of serial number summation and mode theory were adopted to coordinate the results of the 5 methods, and come to an only ordering conclusion. The conclusion based on CAM is much close to the fact, excelled to any result of single method, and generally accepted by senior master mariners. 3 tabs, 7 refs.