基于曲线拟合的路基沉降预测方法的稳定性分析

对工程中采用较多的双曲线法、星野法、浅岗法预测模型的拟合参数评价指标进行探讨，并实例分析了三种方法预测结果的稳定性。结果表明:曲线拟合类沉降方法预测结果的稳定性与回归公式拟合参数密切相关，双曲线法、星野法受拟合起点影响较小，稳定性好；浅岗法受拟合起点和时间间隔影响较大，当时距取值不同时，预测沉降结果表现出不稳定性。

Consistency Analysis of Methods for Subgrade Settlement Prediction Based on Curve Fitting

For the prediction models of hyperbola method, Hushino method and Asaoka method often used in the engineering, the evaluation indexes of fitting parameters were discussed and the consistency of the prediction results from the three methods were analyzed with example. The result shows that the consistency of the prediction results by means of curve fitting closely relates to the fitting parameters of regression formula, wherein hyperbola method and Hushino method contribute less impact of the starting point of fitting and good consistency; and Asaoka method contributes large impact of the starting point of fitting and the time interval so that the prediction result shows inconsistency in case of different value of time lag.