流动人口出行特征及出行方式选择模型——以北京市短期旅居流动人口为例

数量庞大的流动人口在北京市交通出行者中扮演重要角色。其中,短期旅居流动人口(在京时间小于1个月)由于居住时间短、活动集中、目的性强等特点,出行行为更加复杂和不确定,其出行规律及出行方式选择的研究对于解析和把握城市整体交通特征具有重要意义。通过分析北京市2014年第五次综合交通调查中的流动人口调查数据,以在京时间一个月以内、居住在各星级酒店和小旅馆等地的短期旅居流动人口为研究对象,研究其出行特征与出行方式选择的内在联系,并通过多项Logistic模型构建相应的出行方式选择模型。结论显示居住地类别、公交IC卡持有情况、出行距离、出行费用、出行时耗等因素对流动人口的出行决策影响显著;引导流动人口向绿色出行方式转移需要在流动人口的重要集散地合理配置公交设施、提供公交IC卡便捷的购卡和退卡服务、提高公共自行车使用的便利性。

Travel Characteristics and Mode Choice Model of Floating Population:Take Short-Term Floating Population in Beijing as an Example

A large amount of floating population have significantly impacted Beijing transportation system.Specifically,those short-term floating population(i.e.,less than one month stay)are given a number of unique travel characteristics,such as a short-time living,concentrated activities,and goal-oriented trips,which raise complexities and uncertainties to local transportation system.Thus,study on the travel pattern and mode choices of those travelers would benefit in grasping the features of local transportation system.Based on the survey data of floating population in the fifth Beijing comprehensive traffic survey of 2014,this paper analyzes the characteristics of short-term travelers who stayed in Beijing hotels less than one month,and explores the internal connection between travel pattern and the travelers'mode choice.To this purpose,the paper adopts a multi-logistic model to develop the travel mode choice model for the short-term floating population in Beijing.The results show that factors,saying that living condition,usage of bus IC cards,travel distance,cost and time have significant impact on travel mode choice.In addition,increas-ing the number of green travel mode users of floating population should focus on improving public facili-ties and enhancing the convenience of using bus cards and bike sharing system.