弹道导弹对舰艇编队的突防概率计算及仿真研究

分析了舰艇编队对弹道导弹的拦截过程,首先建立了舰空导弹、电子干扰和密集阵反导的一系列数学模型,然后建立了弹道导弹和舰艇编队的仿真对抗模型。利用此模型和蒙特卡洛的仿真策略实现了对弹道导弹对舰艇编队突防概率的求解,这种仿真求解的算法能够真实地放映对抗双方的对抗过程,所得数据可信度较大,能够体现对抗双方所采用的一定的战术思想和原则。为评价弹道导弹的突防能力和作战效能,提供了必要的分析手段。

Simulation and Calculation of Penetration Probability of Ballistic Missile to Surface Ship Formation

Through analyzing the process of the surface ship formation holding up ballistic missiles,the models of the ship-to-air missiles,jamming and Phalanx against the missile were built,then the ballistic missiles and aircraft's simulation countermining mode were built.Penetration probability of ship_ship missiles lauched together was calculated using these models and definite simulation tactic.The result in the simulation arithmetic is more accurate compared to the result in queuing theory arithmetic.The arithme...