上海市私人小客车家庭拥有率预测模型研究

私人小客车家庭拥有率是出行生成模型的重要输入数据，其准确性直接影响着出行生成模型。鉴于此，在分析国内外私人小客车拥有的基础上，从影响私人小客车家庭拥有率的主要因素入手，利用非线性回归的方法提出私人小客车家庭拥有率预测模型，并通过上海市的实例数据给出模型的验证效果。

Prediction Model of Home Ownership Rate for Private Car in Shanghai

Home ownership rate for private car is the important input data in trip generation model, and its accuracy has direct impact on trip generation model. Given this, based on analyzing the ownership of private car at home and aboard, starting from the main influencing factors on home ownership rate for private car, it uses nonlinear regression to propose prediction model of home ownership rate for private car, and puts forward the verification result of the model via the actual data of Shanghai.