基于AHP和变异系数法的大型邮轮靠泊风险研究

针对大型邮轮靠泊的风险问题,首先对大型邮轮的安全靠泊进行理论分析定义;然后以东渡港区1#、2#邮轮泊位为例进行量化研究,并在此基础上建立风险评估指标体系;同时利用层次分析法确定指标的定性权重,并收集挖掘模拟操纵实验数据利用变异系数法来确定风险指标的定量权重;最后引入模糊综合评价法建立风险评估模型,并采用实验数据对模型进行比对验证;最终根据模型及权重大小得出大型邮轮安全靠泊的主要风险.

Risk Research On The Large Cruise Ships Berthing Based on the Methods of AHP and Coefficient of Variation

With regard to the risk of berthing of large cruise ships,the theoretical analysis and definition of the safe berthing of large cruise ships are firstly carried out;and then,Quantitative Research is made on the No.1 and No.2 berths in Dongdu Port Area as an example,and on this basis,risk assessment indicator system is finally established.Moreover,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is used to determine the qualitative weights of the risk indicators,while coefficient of variation method(CV)is used to determine the quantitative weights of the risk indicators after the experimental manipulation data is collected and excavated;finally,the main risks of large cruise ships safe berth are obtained according to a risk assessment model and its weight,which is established by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and is compared and verified by the experimental data.