时间序列模型在交通量预测中的适应性分析

为分析区域路网结构发生较大变化时,时间序列模型在交通量预测中的适应性,以G326遵义至湄潭段实地观测交通量为基础数据,以杭瑞高速遵义至思南段建成通车年为分界线,对线性、二项式及指数等3种时间序列模型进行加权分配,并预测该路段交通量,将预测结果与实际数据对比分析得出:在路网结构发生较大变化时,时间序列模型的预测结果存在较大误差,不宜作为决策依据。

Adaptability Analysis of Time Series Model in Traffic Volume Prediction

To analyze the adaptability of time series model in traffic volume prediction when the regional road network structure changes greatly,this paper takes the field observation traffic volume from Zunyi to Meitan section of G326 as the basic data,and takes the opening year of Zunyi to Sinan section of Hang Rui expressway as the dividing line,and forecasts the traffic volume of the section by weighting linear,binomial and exponential time series models.Then,through the comparative analysis of the predicted result and the actual data,it is concluded that the result has a large error when the road network structure changes greatly,which is unsuitable for decision-making.