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Micro-simulation of daily activity-travel patterns for travel demand forecasting |
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| Authors: | Ryuichi Kitamura Cynthia Chen Ram M Pendyala Ravi Narayanan |
| Institution: | (1) Department of Civil Engineering Systems, Kyoto University, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-01, Japan;(2) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA;(3) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620-5350, USA;(4) RDC, Inc., 311 California Street, Suite 620, San Franciso, CA 94104, USA |
| Abstract: | The development and initial validation results of a micro-simulator for the generation of daily activity-travel patterns are presented in this paper. The simulator assumes a sequential history and time-of-day dependent structure. Its components are developed based on a decomposition of a daily activity-travel pattern into components to which certain aspects of observed activity-travel behavior correspond, thus establishing a link between mathematical models and observational data. Each of the model components is relatively simple and is estimated using commonly adopted estimation methods and existing data sets. A computer code has been developed and daily travel patterns have been generated by Monte Carlo simulation. Study results show that individuals' daily travel patterns can be synthesized in a practical manner by micro-simulation. Results of validation analyses suggest that properly representing rigidities in daily schedules is important in simulating daily travel patterns. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. |
| Keywords: | daily activity-travel patterns forecasting micro-simulation synthetic travel patterns |
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