公路路网货物运输量月度波动系数推算方法

公路运输量波动系数反映了运输需求与运输供给在时空上的不均衡状态.本文首先分析了车辆货物运输量月度波动系数的统计方法和其在统计调查中存在的问题；接着依托高速公路联网收费系统、交通量自动观测点与交通量调查信息系统等平台，建立了公路路网货物运输量月度波动系数推算模型，把车货质量、收费总额、交通量、车道数、通车里程等参数引入到模型中来，并对公路路网货物运输量非基数月度波动系数提出了量化处理、权重赋予的方法；最后，通过实例验证了模型和算法的可行性.研究成果可为公路路网货物运输量统计调查、区域内公路路网规划和综合运输体系优化提供切实的参考.

Calculation Method of Monthly Fluctuation Coefficient on Highway Network Freight Transportation Volumes

The fluctuation coefficient on highway transportation volume reflected an imbalance status of the transportation demand and supply in the aspect of time and space. According to analyzing the statistical method of vehicle freight transportation volume of monthly fluctuation coefficient and its problems in the statistical investigation; and then relying on platform such as the expressway network toll system, the traffic volume automatic observation point, the survey information system, this paper establishes a calculation model of monthly fluctuation coefficient on highway network freight transportation volume. And some parameters such as the weights of cargo and vehicle, the toll sum, the traffic volume, the number of lanes, the traffic mileage are combined into a model. And then the way of processing in quantity and assigning weight is put forward which for the non base monthly fluctuation coefficient on highway network freight transportation volumes. Finally this paper verifies the feasibility of the model and calculation. The result can provide a practical reference on the statistical investigation of highway network freight transportation volumes, regional highway network planning, and the comprehensive transportation system optimization.