| 城市快速路交通拥堵持续时间分布特性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张轮,施奕骋,杨文臣,杨涛.城市快速路交通拥堵持续时间分布特性研究[J].武汉水运工程学院学报,2014(1):1-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张轮 施奕骋 杨文臣 杨涛 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804 [2]上海市交通信息中心,上海200032 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家863计划项目（批准号：2012AA112307）、上海市创新基金项目（批准号：11ZZ27）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 依托上海市南北高架西侧的交通流数据，引入生存分析方法，建立基于风险的交通拥堵持续时间模型。其根据大量交通拥堵样本的时间属性，采用Kaplan-M eyer非参数回归模型定量估计拥堵持续时间，并按星期数、高峰时段、数据年限、样本位置和天气划分五类影响因素，从生存函数和危险函数两个方面，分析拥堵持续时间的时空分布特性。结果表明上海市南北高架西侧的交通拥堵持续时间70％能在1小时内消散，在不同类别的影响因素下分布特性存在明显差异。
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| 关 键 词： | 智能交通系统 交通拥堵 持续时间 生存分析 非参数回归 |
Distribution Characteristics of T raffic Congestion Duration Time for Urban Expressway |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Lun SHI Yicheng YANG Wenchen YANG Tao |
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| Institution: | 1 Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China;2 Shanghai Municipal Transportation Information Center, Shanghai 200032, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the historical traffic data of the west-side North-South Viaduct in Shanghai ,this paper introduces survival analysis into the analysis of traffic congestion mechnism ,and a hazard-based traffic congestion duration time model is presentd .This model analyzes the time attributes of many traffic congestion samples ,and employs nonparametric regression-based Kaplan-Meyer model to esti-mate traffic congestion duration time .Then ,the key influence factors of traffic congestion are divided into five types including weekdays ,peak time ,data year ,location and weather ,and the spatial-tem-poral distribution characteristics of traffic congestion duration time is analyzed .Analsis results has shown that the 70% of traffic congestion durations on road segments of west-side North-South Via-duct are no longer than an hour ,and there exists significant difference of distribution characteristics under different influence factors . |
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| Keywords: | intelligent transportation traffic congestion duration time survival analysis non-para-metric regression |
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