复杂水域船舶通航安全风险耦合机理分析

船舶通航安全是水上安全中最为重要的组成部分之一。当前，复杂水域所发生的交通事故占水上交通事故比重较大。通过对宜昌、荆州、岳阳3地的实际调研结合近5a各复杂水域发生的交通事故，统计分析出影响复杂水域船舶通航安全的主要风险因素，利用 N-K 模型，计算出影响复杂水域船舶通航安全的多因素风险耦合发生的概率及风险值。并根据结果提出改善复杂水域船舶通航安全的策略。

Complex Waters of Ship Navigation Safety Risk Coupling M echanism Analysis

Ship navigation safety is one of the most important water safety component of the current , complicated waters of accidents occurring accidents account for a large proportion of the water .To this end ,this paper through actual research on Yichang ,Jingzhou ,Yueyang combines three accidents in recent years occurred in the waters of each complex statistical analysis of the main risk factors affect-ing the complexity of the navigable waters of the safety of the ship .Using NK model to calculate the effects of complex multivariate waters coupled ship navigation safety and risk probability values .And new ideas and ways are proposed to improve the safety of navigating the complex according to the re-sults .T he results can provide a reference for the incoming department in charge of navigating the com-plex environment to improve and reduce maritime accidents .