主观贝叶斯方法在列车占用丢失报警原因分析中的应用

根据铁总公司要求,TDCS/CTC系统增加列车占用丢失报警功能,为保证列车运行安全、提高列车运行效率,在发生列车占用丢失报警时,需要及时且准确地判定报警原因.主观贝叶斯方法是一种概率推理方法,能从不完全、不精确或不确定的知识和信息中做出推理.列车占用丢失报警原因分析具有现象与原因的不确定性.本文将主观贝叶斯方法引入列车占用丢失报警原因分析中.最后利用大量算例进行验证,验证结果表明了该方法的合理性和实用性.

Application of Subjective Bayes Method in cause analysis of train occupancy loss alarm

According to requirements of China Railway, it was increased the function of train occupancy loss alarm in TDCS/CTC System. In order to ensure the train operation safety and improve the efficiency of train operation, when the train occupation loss alarm happened, it was needed to judge the cause in time and accuracy. Subjective Bayesian Mmethod is a method of probabilistic reasoning with the ability of making inferences based on incomplete, inexact or uncertain knowledge and information. Cause analysis of train occupancy loss alarm was with the uncertainty of phenomena and the causes. This paper introduced the application of Subjective Bayes Method in cause analysis of train occupancy loss alarm. Finally, examples for authentication verified the reasonableness and practicability of the method.