基于突变理论的深中通道水下隧道施工安全隐患评价研究

为对深中通道水下隧道施工安全隐患进行评估，建立基于突变理论的水下隧道安全隐患评价模型。为降低主观因素影响，结合因子分析法改进评价指标体系的构建方法。对深中通道进行实例研究，结合专家意见梳理相关安全隐患指标17条，通过因子分析提炼出5个一级指标，分别为沉管管节浮运安装隐患、深基坑开挖隐患、沉管结构预制隐患、环境气候隐患及海上辅助施工隐患，构建具有递阶层次结构的安全隐患指标体系。通过突变级数法计算各指标对水下隧道施工安全的重要性程度并对结果排序，发现环境气候隐患、岛隧结合部施工隐患对深中通道隧道施工安全的影响性最大，结合施工环境提出对策建议。项目施工企业通过制定相应安全管控措施，有效预防了安全事故的发生。

Evaluation of Potential Hazard of Underwater Tunnel Construction Safety of Shenzhen Zhongshan Link Based on Mutation Theory

In order to evaluate the potential hazard of Shenzhen Zhongshan Link tunnel construction, an evaluation model of potential hazard of underwater tunnel based on mutation theory is established. The evaluation index system is improved by factor analysis so as to reduce the influence of subjective factors. Seventeen safety potential hazard indices are sorted out according to expert opinions, and 5 first level indices of potential hazards, i.e. floating installation of immersed tube element, deep foundation pit excavation, immersed tube structure prefabrication, environment and climate and offshore auxiliary construction, are extracted by factor analysis, so as to build a hierarchical safety hazard index system. By calculating the importance of each index to the construction safety of the underwater tunnel and sorting the results, it is found that the environmental and climatic hazard and the excavation hazard of the deep foundation pit have the greatest impact on the construction safety of the tunnel. It can provide the basis for the construction enterprises to formulate corresponding safety control measures, so as to effectively prevent the occurrence of safety accidents.