Do fewer people mean fewer cars? Population decline and car ownership in Germany |
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| Institution: | 1. Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Hohenzollernstrasse 1-3, 45128 Essen, Germany;2. Jacobs University Bremen, Campus Ring 1, 28759 Bremen, Germany;1. Northwest Land and Resources Research Center, Institute of Transport Geography and Spatial Planning, Shaanxi Normal University, China;2. Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, USA;3. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, China;1. Neustar, Inc., New York, USA;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA;1. Department of City and Regional Planning, Stuart Weitzman School of Design, University of Pennsylvania, United States;2. Department of Geography and Centre for China Urban and Regional Studies, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, China;3. Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, China |
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| Abstract: | Drawing on household data from Germany, this study econometrically analyzes the determinants of automobile ownership, focusing specifically on the extent to which decreases in family size translate into changes in the number of cars at the national level. Beyond modeling several variables over which policy makers have direct leverage, including the proximity of public transit, fuel prices and land use density, the analysis uses the estimated coefficients from a multinomial logit model to simulate car ownership rates under alternative scenarios pertaining to demographic change and other socio-economic variables. Our baseline scenario predicts continued increases in the number of cars despite decreases in population, a trend that is attributed to continued increases in household income. |
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