“空巴联运”需求预测模型与实证分析:以湖北地区为例

以非集计离散选择模型理论为依据,建立基于Logit的城际旅客交通方式选择行为模型.根据武汉周边4个城市(孝感、随州、襄阳和十堰)经武汉到上海的旅客出行方式意向选择(Stated Preference,SP)调查数据,研究了影响旅客选择"空巴联运"(即航空与巴士接驳)方式的重要因素,并对影响因素进行灵敏度分析,估计3种交通方式("空巴联运"、动车—高铁、大巴—高铁)的客流分担率.基于调查数据,对模型参数进行了标定.结果表明,城市内出行时间(程前程后出行时间)和总出行货币费用对旅客出行方式选择影响显著.

Forecasting Travel Demand for Combined Bus and Airline Mode:A Case Study of Hubei Province

Based on the disaggregate choice theory, a multinomial Logit model is established to investigate the mode choice behavior of intercity travelers among combined bus and airline mode, bullet train to high speed rail, and bus to high speed rail. Stated preference (SP) survey is conducted for four city pairs from Xiaogan, Suizhou, Xiangyang, and Shiyan to Shanghai, respectively. The Logit model is calibrated by the survey data for the four city pairs, and is then used to ascertain the key factors affecting travelers’mode choice and to estimate the modal split of intercity transportation market. The findings show that the access/ egress time and the total monetary travel cost play an important role in the mode choice behavior of intercity travelers.