利用传染病模型研究空中交通拥挤传播规律

为避免以往研究中主要集中在拥挤传播网络分布和现实数据观察等表象环节，发掘空中交通拥挤传播演变的科学规律，以空中交通拥挤传播与传染病传播过程的相似性分析为切入点，参考传染病SIR 模型，建立空中交通拥挤传播模型，并利用相轨线分析和参数分析等方法，得到拥挤传播趋势及阈值，解释了拥挤传播影响因子和消散因子对拥挤传播过程的影响.结合亚特兰大和白云机场实际延误数据，发现所建模型能够恰当地表述基本拥挤过程，但各类因子需根据运行实际调整而无法形成固定值，且对较复杂的拥挤过程需要引入新的参数.

Mechanisms of Congestion Propagation in Air Traffic Management Based on Infectious Diseases Model

Previous researches mainly focused on the superficial aspects such as the network distribution and real-time data observation of the congestion propagation, on that account, this paper seeks to explore the scientific pattern of the evolution of air traffic congestion propagation. According to the similarity of the process between air traffic congestion propagation and transmission of infectious disease and referring to SIR model of infectious disease, an air traffic congestion propagation model is presented. Phase trajectory analysis and parameter analysis are used to achieve the propagation tendency and threshold value of the congestion. The effects of influence factors and dissipation factors on the propagation process are also explained. Compared with actual delay data from Atlanta and Baiyun airports, it turns up that the model just right fit the basic congestion process. However, all types of factors need to be adjusted according to the practical situation so as to not be able to form fixed values. For more complicated congestion process, new parameters should be involved.