厦深铁路对汕尾市公路客运的影响研究及发展策略探讨

为研究铁路对公路客运的影响,从出行者偏好和运输方式特性出发,选取安全性、经济性等7项指标确定运输产品的效用值,对传统的Logit模型特征函数求解进行了改进,基于旅客出行行为和意向调查数据,结合层次分析法和可能满意度法对分担率模型进行求解.与典型方法和调查结果进行对比分析表明,改进后的Logit模型在样本量较小的情况下比较简便有效.利用二次曲线时间序列法和改进的分担率模型,计算出未来2年内公路客运量将同比减少56%,铁路和公路的客流分担率分别为56%和44%.可见,厦深铁路的开通将对汕尾公路客运产生较严重的冲击.最后通过SWOT战略分析对公路客运的发展提出几点建议. 

The Effect of Xiamen-Shenzhen Railway on Shanwei's Road Transportation and the Development Strategy

To study the effect of railway on roadway passenger transportation,this paper selects seven indexes including security level and economy level to calculate the utility values of transportation product based on the viewpoint of both traveler preference and character on the mode of transportation.The solutions of Eigenfunction in traditional Logit model are improved.According to traveling behavior and preference survey,this paper uses both the AHP method and possible satisfaction method to solve the Logit model.Compared with the typical method and the results of the survey,the improved model in the case of small sample size is more effective.The roadway passenger volume will be reduced by56%,and the railway and highway passenger traffic sharing rates will be 56%and 44%respectively in the next 2years,which is obtained by using quadratic time series and the improved model.The study results demonstrate that the railway will have a serious impact on roadway passenger transportation.Finally,several recommendations are presented for the development of roadway passenger transportation through SWOT strategic analysis.