| ARMA预测技术在重庆东水门长江大桥中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐浩,孟利波,宋刚.ARMA预测技术在重庆东水门长江大桥中的应用研究[J].公路交通技术,2014(6):95-96. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐浩 孟利波 宋刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 招商局重庆交通科研设计院有限公司,重庆,400067 |
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| 基金项目： | 重庆市应用开发(重大)项目，交通运输部西部交通建设科技项目，重庆市科技人才培养计划资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对重庆东水门长江大桥桥塔上部应变长期监测数据，采用ARMA技术对其进行建模处理并预测其未来发展趋势。试验结果显示，采用ARMA方法对应变量向后外推5步的预测误差小于6%。预测结果在工程应用中具有一定的参考价值，为桥梁结构的安全预警提供了可靠的科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 东水门大桥 ARMA 预测 桥梁监测 |
Research on Application of ARMA Predicting Technique in Chongqing Dongshuimen Yangtze River Bridge |
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| TANG Hao,MENG Libo,SONG Gang.Research on Application of ARMA Predicting Technique in Chongqing Dongshuimen Yangtze River Bridge[J].Technology of Highway and Transport,2014(6):95-96. |
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| Authors: | TANG Hao MENG Libo SONG Gang |
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| Institution: | TANG Hao, MENG Libo, SONG Gang |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at long-term monitoring data on upper strain of tower of Chongqing Dongshuimen Yangtze River Bridge, this paper establishes its model and predicts its development tendency in the future by means of ARMA technique. Test results show that the error of prediction by pushing strain 5 steps backward by means of ARMA method is less than 6%. The prediction results exhibit certain reference values in project application and provide reliable scientific bases for safety alert of bridge structures. |
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| Keywords: | Dongshuimen Bridge ARMA prediction bridge monitoring |
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