舟山海域油品码头布局与溢油风险评估

提出了一个基于不确定性分析理论的区域油品码头空间布局的溢油风险模拟与评估方法。该方法可系统分析沿海区域油品码头空间布局及其产生的海域溢油风险的空间分布规律，能够满足我国当前近海高强度开发形势下战略环评和环境风险评估的技术需求。以舟山海域为研究对象，通过油品码头布局模型和不确定性分析，对舟山海域进行综合溢油风险评估，结果表明该方法可以用于综合评估某一海区的溢油风险水平；基于溢油风险概率和污染损害的时空分布，依据风险值集中度最大及风险总值最小的原则，能够实现多种码头布局方案下的海域溢油风险水平的综合比较，并得到最优油品码头布局方案。

Oil dock layout at Zhoushan sea area & oil spilling risk assessment

This paper proposed a simulation and evaluation method for the oil spilling risk in the spatial layout of regional oil dock based on the theory of uncertainty analysis.This method can be used to systematically analyze the spatial layout of oil dock along the costal region and figure out the spatial distribution rule of sea-area oil spilling risk caused by the layout,and can also satisfy the technical demand for strategic environmental assessment and environmental risk assessment under the current situation of offshore high-strength exploitation in China.It treated Zhoushan sea area as the research object to evaluate the comprehensive oil spilling risk by analyzing the layout model of oil dock and the uncertainty.The results show that this method can be used to comprehensively analyze the oil spilling risk level of a certain sea area,and can realize comprehensive comparison among sea-area oil spilling risk levels under many kinds of dock layout schemes,and get the optimal scheme for the oil dock layout based on the oil spilling risk probability and the temporal and spatial distribution of pollution damage,and according to the principle that the total risk value is the smallest if the concentration ratio of risk value is maximum.