基于灰色-马尔科夫链理论的公路客运量预测

客运量预测是公路网规划不可缺少的环节，是公路经济效益计算的重要基础。以四川省公路客运量为例，利用灰色系统理论，建立GM（1，1）预测模型，并将灰色GM（1，1）预测模型与马尔科夫链状态转移矩阵相结合，进一步提高预测结果的精度。从计算效果上分析，该方法求得的结果与其他方法相比，与实际值偏差较小，预测效果较好。

Study on Highway Passenger Volume Forecast by the Gray-Markov Chain Method

The forecast of passenger volume is an essential part of highway network planning and the basis of calculation of road economic benefit. Take the highway passenger volume in Sichuan province as the example, according to the grey system theory, a GM（1,1） forecast model is proposed and combines the GM （1,1） forecast model with the Markov chain state transition matrix to improve the precision of the forecast result. By analyzing the forecast result, it is shows that the forecast value is more accurate than other methods.